THE RUSSIAN FRONT

Some things about the military coup in Georgia don’t quite make sense, at least based on the very sketchy early reports coming out.

For one, the  mutiny / coup seems to be centered on a tank battalion, but all reports I’ve seen have suggested that it’s former and current special forces commanders who are behind this.  Either the conspiracy is more widespread than initially indicated, or there’s some strange piece of information we’re not getting.

For two, note that claims of leadership of the coup center around one Gvaladze (or Khvaladze), former commander of an elite special forces unit.  At least one report has claimed the conspiracy extends into current leadership of Georgian special forces. I haven’t been able to track down WHEN Gvaladze was commander of this unit, but it’s actually the Georgian special forces that the United States has been most heavily involved in training and equipping over the last few years.  It makes little sense that current special forces types would be the ringleader of a coup designed to disrupt the immediately forthcoming NATO exercises in Georgia–I could see a disgruntled former commander, though, which is why I was so surprised to see the claim that current commanders were implicated.

For three, what kind of coup plotter discusses his plans on video?  I haven’t seen the video yet, though I intend to track it down.  If it’s genuine, and Gvaladze knew he was being taped (as opposed to clandestine surveillance), that’s class-A stupid.

Certainly  this makes Georgia’s chances of joining NATO ever more distant.  Why would anyone want to let in a country prone (best case) to military coups or (worst case) with high-ranking military officials recruited as Russian agents.

Russian involvement is of course the 300-pound gorilla in the room.  Direct evidence is hard to come by, though a military coup aimed at cutting off a NATO exercise is pretty clearly in Russian interests.  Unless of course the Georgian opposition is right and it’s all a provocation organized by Saakashvili.  Groan.

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