THE RUSSIAN FRONT

This morning’s Washington Post contains an editorial by Murray Feshbach on the massive internal challenges that confront the Russian Federation as its leaders struggle to re-establish their country as a global superpower.

In “Behind the Bluster, Russia is Collapsing,” Feshbach points to the volatile economic situation facing the nation’s oil-dependent economy and the host of public-health crises (ranging from appalling levels of tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS to the more mundane, but rampant, scourges of chronic alcoholism and heart disease) that continue to fuel Russia’s demographic decline.

Money graf:

Predictions that Russia will again become powerful, rich and influential ignore some simply devastating problems at home that block any march to power. Sure, Russia’s army could take tiny Georgia. But Putin’s military is still in tatters, armed with rusting weaponry and staffed with indifferent recruits. Meanwhile, a declining population is robbing the military of a new generation of soldiers. Russia’s economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil. And, worst of all, it’s facing a public health crisis that verges on the catastrophic.

Feshbach’s broader arguments are already well-known to Russian area specialists. As Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (and Research Professor Emeritus at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service) Dr. Feshbach has for many years been the leading voice regarding the calamitous state of Russian demographics. Readers unfamiliar with his opinions, should give them their due.

Against the backdrop of the late summer invasion of Georgia, the announced annexation of South Ossetia, and the Russian state’s ongoing efforts to expand military and economic influence into South and Central America comes a minor event that offers a slightly different perspective on the degree of Russia’s military resurgence.

A few days back a young Lieutenant named Vitalii Efremov posted a homemade rap video to the Russian-language site RuTube decrying the sorry living conditions and poor pay endured by Russian soldiers — and the Ministry of Defense’s apparent indifference to their suffering. As the UK’s Times OnLine notes:

The lieutenant modelled his video on Stan by Eminem, in which the rapper sends a letter to a frustrated fan. The Russian letter is to Anatoly Serdyakov, the Defence Minister, and is set against a backdrop of military decay: a crowded barrack room with peeling wallpaper, a scabrous bathroom, erratic shower water and broken equipment.

Just as Stan complains that Eminem does not reply to his post, so the lieutenant’s e-mail moans about a lack of response from the Minister. The video said that no progress had been made on granting cheap credits to professional soldiers, such as Lieutenant Efremov, who want to buy their own home.

The Minister was not amused. Efremov has since been deployed to Siberia.

My friends and colleagues down the I-70 at the History Department of the Command and General Staff College have a new blog. Though the focus is generally on American military history, there’s some very interesting stuff. To my mind, standouts include Scott Stephenson on the present eclipse but continuing relevance of Revolutions in Military Affairs and another by the same author laying out standards for grading graduate-level papers.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates may have come up with the quote of the decade: “At this point I should note that for the first time, both the United States secretary of state and secretary of defense have doctorates in Russian studies. A fat lot of good that’s done us.”

To Gates’ credit, though, it seems to me he’s struck the right note on the South Ossetian crisis: Russia’s response to Georgia’s attempt to seize South Ossetia has been disproportionate and is clearly intended at reasserting authority in Russia’s near abroad, but that is a far cry from the Hitler / Munich parallels so loosely thrown around. In Gates’ words, Russia’s behavior is tsarist, not Soviet, and that makes an enormous difference. Gates is also suitably cautious on the subject of NATO membership for Georgia, which is a welcome breath of fresh air.

Frankly, I find Condoleezza Rice’s conduct more puzzling: if there’s one thing that scholarly training in Russian / East European history ought to teach, it’s the need to be very careful before jumping in the middle of ethnic / national disputes. Down that path lies madness.

I’m cognizant of the danger of sounding like a broken record, but Kosovo KEEPS COMING BACK.  It’s like the villain in a bad horror movie.

Two quick points on the recognition of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia.

First, is there a clear difference of principle between the recognition of Kosovo and the recognition of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia?  All are small, barely viable, land-locked (Kosovo and S. Ossetia at least), all have outstanding territorial and ethnic disputes, all have been the victims and the victimizers in those ethnic disputes, all have a great power patron, all have their independence opposed by a great power, all have terrible problems with organized crime linked to the state.

And all are seceding / seceded from an imperfect democracy.  Yeah, the Kosovo War happened with Milosevic in power, but when the US recognized Kosovo independence, Milosevic was dead and Serbia was a democracy.  Indeed, the declaration was postponed to avoid affecting the Serbian presidential election.

Is there something I’m missing?

Second, I’m disturbed by the poor quality of the thinking on the part of the Bush administration.  I’m loath to say this, because I do not want this to sound partisan, and I’ve been critical of Clinton administration actions as well.  Nonetheless, when Condoleezza Rice describes the Russian recognition as “dead on arrival in the Security Council” thanks to the American veto, my response is “No kidding.  Just like Kosovo independence was, thanks to the Russian veto.”  That’s empty posturing, devoid of content and devoid of any serious thinking about how to get out of this mess that Saakashvili, Putin, Medvedev, and, yes, the leadership of the West, have gotten us into.